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🌐 [translation-sync] [phillips] Correct, connect, and extend the Phillips Curve Tradeoffs lectures - #312
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mmcky wants to merge 32 commits into
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🌐 [translation-sync] [phillips] Correct, connect, and extend the Phillips Curve Tradeoffs lectures#312mmcky wants to merge 32 commits into
mmcky wants to merge 32 commits into
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🟡 Changes recommended
The change still contains multiple critical build-blocking documentation issues—missing TOC targets and numerous unresolved {ref} cross-references that would fail a jb build -W—so it needs fixes before approval.
11 open issues
What changed in this PR
This pull request syncs the zh-cn translation with upstream updates to the Phillips Curve Tradeoffs lecture sequence (source PR #1105), adding a new translated lecture on econometric policy evaluation and updating related lectures, the book TOC, bibliography, and translation-state metadata.
Changes:
- Add
lectures/phillips_policy_evaluation.md(and corresponding translation state) and integrate it into the book structure. - Sync/refresh multiple Phillips-curve and related lectures (learning / expectations) to match upstream content and cross-linking.
- Update
lectures/_toc.yml, extendlectures/_static/quant-econ.bib, and refresh.translate/state/*.ymlsync metadata.
Approval Readiness
This pull request requires changes.
| File | Summary | Review notes |
|---|---|---|
lectures/rational_expectations.md |
Synced translated content | No blocking review comments on this file. |
lectures/phillips_self_confirming.md |
Synced translated content | Critical: unresolved {ref} target br_one_recursion (cross-reference will fail under -W). |
lectures/phillips_policy_evaluation.md |
New translated lecture added | Critical: unresolved {ref} targets olg_ex7 and pbr_compliment (cross-reference will fail under -W). |
lectures/phillips_misspecified.md |
Synced translated content | Critical: unresolved {ref} targets br_bray and br_one_recursion (cross-reference will fail under -W). |
lectures/phillips_credibility.md |
Synced translated content | Critical: unresolved {ref} targets br_bray, br_one_recursion, and br_ex5 (cross-reference will fail under -W). |
lectures/phillips_adaptive.md |
Synced translated content | Critical: unresolved {ref} target br_bray (cross-reference will fail under -W). |
lectures/ls_learning.md |
Synced translated content | No blocking review comments on this file. |
lectures/kalman.md |
Synced translated content | No blocking review comments on this file. |
lectures/_toc.yml |
Updated TOC structure / entries | Critical: references lq_mean_field_games_extensions but the corresponding document is missing (build will fail under -W). Also: trailing whitespace on caption line 统计与信息论 . |
lectures/_static/quant-econ.bib |
Bibliography updates | No blocking review comments on this file. |
.translate/state/rational_expectations.md.yml |
Translation sync metadata | No blocking review comments on this file. |
.translate/state/phillips_two_stories.md.yml |
Translation sync metadata | No blocking review comments on this file. |
.translate/state/phillips_self_confirming.md.yml |
Translation sync metadata | No blocking review comments on this file. |
.translate/state/phillips_priors.md.yml |
Translation sync metadata | No blocking review comments on this file. |
.translate/state/phillips_policy_evaluation.md.yml |
Translation sync metadata for new lecture | No blocking review comments on this file. |
.translate/state/phillips_misspecified.md.yml |
Translation sync metadata | No blocking review comments on this file. |
.translate/state/phillips_lost_conquest.md.yml |
Translation sync metadata | No blocking review comments on this file. |
.translate/state/phillips_learning.md.yml |
Translation sync metadata | No blocking review comments on this file. |
.translate/state/phillips_escaping_nash.md.yml |
Translation sync metadata | No blocking review comments on this file. |
.translate/state/phillips_drifts_volatilities.md.yml |
Translation sync metadata | No blocking review comments on this file. |
.translate/state/phillips_credible_policies.md.yml |
Translation sync metadata | No blocking review comments on this file. |
.translate/state/phillips_credibility.md.yml |
Translation sync metadata | No blocking review comments on this file. |
.translate/state/phillips_adaptive.md.yml |
Translation sync metadata | No blocking review comments on this file. |
.translate/state/ls_learning.md.yml |
Translation sync metadata | No blocking review comments on this file. |
.translate/state/kalman.md.yml |
Translation sync metadata | No blocking review comments on this file. |
Review effort: Balanced
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| - file: lq_mean_field_games | ||
| - file: lq_mean_field_games_extensions |
| 注意，{eq}`pa_adaptive` 是 {doc}`phillips_credibility` 中最小二乘学习算法的一个*常数增益*版本，其中常数 $(1 - \lambda)$ 起到了那里递减增益 $t^{-1}$ 所起的作用。 | ||
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| 方程 {eq}`pa_geom` 具有一个**归纳性质**：如果政府持续重复一个恒定的 $y_t = \tilde y$ 政策，最终公众会逐渐将 $x_t \approx \tilde y$ 作为其预期。 | ||
| 它也是 {ref}`br_bray` 中松弛算法在日历时间下、增益为 $1 - \lambda$ 的版本。 |
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| （{cite:t}`Sargent1999` 中对应的公式（8）将该冲击的日期标记为 $t$，这是一处笔误。） | ||
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| 这正是本讲座所用记号下的 {ref}`br_bray` 中布雷的市场。 |
| 由于 $\mathcal{M} < 0$，该常微分方程在其静止点附近是稳定的，{cite}`MarcetSargent1989` 的定理给出了 $x_t$ 全局收敛到 $y^N$ 的条件。 | ||
| 由于 $\mathcal{M} < 0$，该常微分方程在其静止点附近是稳定的。 | ||
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| 用 {ref}`br_one_recursion` 的语言来说，纳什均衡是 **E 稳定的**（预期稳定）：$B$ 将感知的通货膨胀映射为实际的通货膨胀，而该映射的导数 $h' = B'$ 小于 1。 |
| \qquad h' = \frac{\theta^2}{1 + \theta^2} . | ||
| $$ | ||
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| 这就是 {ref}`br_ex5` 中针对布雷市场的公式，其中 $h' = B'$。 |
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| 由于 $B$ 的作用类似于最优反应映射，我们可以追问：若代理人将其增益逐步向最优估计调整，他们能否找到这个均衡。 | ||
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| 与之相关的微分方程 $dC/d\tau = B(C) - C$ 正是 {ref}`br_one_recursion` 中的 E 稳定性条件：当 $B'(C^*) < 1$ 时，该不动点是 E 稳定的。 |
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| {ref}`olg_ex7` 提出了钟（Chung）的问题，即在有限理性系列模型模拟出的数据上估计增益本身，其中增益被称为 $\gamma$，信念被称为 $\alpha$；下文的 {ref}`ppe_ex1` 在本讲座的数据上探讨了同样的问题。 | ||
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| {ref}`pbr_compliment` 解释了为什么不会消失的增益能够使这类学习参数可估计。 |
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| 这是该书之谜的另一种表述方式：实际政策的表现仿佛比该书中常增益政府更晚才学会自然率假说。 | ||
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| 在 {ref}`olg_ex7` 的模拟经济中，政府确实遵循了自己的建议，似然函数能恢复出真实的增益；而在这里，对缓慢学习的偏好在一定程度上反映了实际政策相对于该程序的滞后程度。 |
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| **E-稳定性。** 将古典均衡写成从信念到其所生成的总体回归系数这一映射的不动点 $\gamma = T(\gamma)$。 | ||
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| 相应的微分方程 $d\gamma/d\tau = T(\gamma) - \gamma$ 就是 {ref}`br_one_recursion` 中的 E-稳定性条件，{doc}`ls_learning` 表明其稳定性决定了最小二乘学习是否能够收敛。 |
| - file: ar1_bayes | ||
| - file: ar1_turningpts | ||
| - caption: 统计与信息论 | ||
| - caption: 统计与信息论 |
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Automated Translation Sync
This PR contains automated translations from QuantEcon/lecture-python.myst.
Source PR
#1105 - [phillips] Correct, connect, and extend the Phillips Curve Tradeoffs lectures
Files Added
lectures/phillips_policy_evaluation.md.translate/state/phillips_policy_evaluation.md.ymlFiles Updated
lectures/kalman.md.translate/state/kalman.md.ymllectures/ls_learning.md.translate/state/ls_learning.md.ymllectures/phillips_adaptive.md.translate/state/phillips_adaptive.md.ymllectures/phillips_credibility.md.translate/state/phillips_credibility.md.ymllectures/phillips_credible_policies.md.translate/state/phillips_credible_policies.md.ymllectures/phillips_drifts_volatilities.md.translate/state/phillips_drifts_volatilities.md.ymllectures/phillips_escaping_nash.md.translate/state/phillips_escaping_nash.md.ymllectures/phillips_learning.md.translate/state/phillips_learning.md.ymllectures/phillips_lost_conquest.md.translate/state/phillips_lost_conquest.md.ymllectures/phillips_misspecified.md.translate/state/phillips_misspecified.md.ymllectures/phillips_priors.md.translate/state/phillips_priors.md.ymllectures/phillips_self_confirming.md.translate/state/phillips_self_confirming.md.ymllectures/phillips_two_stories.md.translate/state/phillips_two_stories.md.ymllectures/rational_expectations.md.translate/state/rational_expectations.md.ymllectures/_toc.ymllectures/_static/quant-econ.bibThe following new file(s) could not be translated and are absent from this PR. Their entries have been removed from
lectures/_toc.ymlso the target build stays green; the entries return with the files once they are delivered. The error details and recovery steps are in the failure issue this run opens on the source repository.lectures/phillips_drifts_volatilities_2.mdThe following sections were not modified by this source PR and are missing from the target. They have been omitted from this PR to keep it scoped to the source PR's actual changes. An earlier translation PR should add them. If that PR is abandoned, run
/translate-resyncto recover.lectures/prospects_bounded_rationality.md:ExercisesThe following sections exist in the current translation but have no counterpart in the source document, so this sync removes them (the translation mirrors the source's structure). If the source deleted these sections, this removal is correct — merge as usual. If they are human-authored additions you want to keep, move them into a target-only file before merging (see adding content to a translated edition).
lectures/phillips_drifts_volatilities.md:一个 Metropolis-within-Gibbs 抽样器,又一个四分之一世纪的证据lectures/phillips_escaping_nash.md:主导逃逸路径lectures/phillips_learning.md:最小二乘法学习收敛lectures/phillips_lost_conquest.md:一个自我确认均衡：自然界的新凯恩斯主义模型Details
This PR was created automatically by the translation action.